The local election in Owlsmoor has thown up a chance to see where the UKIP voters would go if UKIP don't stand or perhaps where they have taken there vote from. Given that UKIP did not stand in the Borough election but did stand in the Town.
It is always assumed that UKIP votes simply take from the Tory vote. Well I'm not so sure this is the case.
UKIP received 12% of the vote which is quite a large figure of the overall vote almost putting labour into 4th place.
I would add some caveats to this, firstly this is a local election so people may know some of the candidates or may indeed vote differently to a general election because of the candidates etc. Secondly some people could of changed their vote from Labour or Tory or Lib Dem from Town or Borough, but lets for this example assume that this goes both ways and irons itself out.
Labour vote appears to me unchanged percentage wise losing only 2 votes from UKIP. the Greens are next losing 16 votes or 2% next its the Lib dems with 37 votes or 4% and the Tories the most at 55 votes or 6%.
This also means that of UKIP vote of 112 people given no UKIP choice in Owlsmoor, 14% choose Greens, 2% choose Labour, 33% choose Lib Dems and 49% choose Tories and 2% don't vote.
Does this not demonstrates that infact the Lib Dems and the Greens are also effected greatly by having a UKIP stand in an election. This is something worth remembering when working out those marginal seats.
To compare this to the 2003 Borough elections were;
Party 2003 Vote 2010 Vote
Conservative 64% 54%
Liberal Democrats 19% 25%
Labour 17% 13%
Greens 0% 7%
Good analysis, promptly posted, and one with which I concur.
ReplyDeleteIt’s not unsurprising that UKIP, who could be considered proper conservatives, draw votes from Tory voters unhappy with the progressive modernist Cameron who continues to ignore the views of his core voters.
More surprising is that UKIP drew significant votes from the Lib Dems. This may be because UKIP and the LDs have things in common like being nice people, wanting small government and respecting liberty.
Understandably the idealist Green voters showed less inclination to go UKIP. And the bottom line is that UKIP much have nothing in common with Labour.
It would be an interesting parliament following the General Election if the Owlsmoor outcome was projected across the UK.
I've not seen the analysis, but we've always known they take votes from us in the Euros in the SW, partially why Ricky had to vote against whip on the referendum vote.
ReplyDeleteOne of the UKIP MEPs is an old school Labour unionist type. Sure, they're mostly racist headbangers, but that's not even the majority of the membership.
Nice number though, thanks
This is a fascinating analysis and one I had not immediately seen. I must say reading the UKIP literature I am quite at a loss to understand what they think they would bring to a Town Council.Take Sandhurst Council out of the EU? Stop any non-Britborns living or working in the Sandhurst area? I do not agree with their aims, but I can see a national relevance if one is xenophobic and does not see the larger picture regarding real British interests. I do not see how they are applicable at Town Council level.
ReplyDeleteUKIP is important at every level because the EU regional quangos are overriding the authority of our councils - particularly in the planning process. As for the general election, the choice for any real Tory couldn't be clearer.
ReplyDeleteThis election may be Britain's last chance to claw back it's sovereignty. You only need to look at the key arguments that senior Tories made about Lisbon less than a year ago, followed by their recent climbdown on this subject to realise that the three main parties have now been silenced by this this anti-democratic union. British citizens can now (and have recently) been extradited to EU countries - that don't share the values or our legal system - without any evidence of a crime. This is just the beginning.
We will have no ability to control our borders, resulting in an ever growing and unsustainable population. If we speak, we are branded racists and yet as an immigrant myself, I can see clearly that this is an issue of community cohesion and quality of life.
Above the 45 million we pay every day to be ruled by EU people we did not elect, we are paying increased council and income taxes to support further immigration we simply can't afford. This is directly effecting the quality of education, the NHS, transport and housing infrastructure, policing, council services, employment, social and child benefits, care for the elderly, etc.
In summary, our EU membership and associated immigration policies are killing our economy, our standard of living, and our ability to govern ourselves.
UKIP has 500+ candidates running in this election. We can regain control of our country but we need to do it now!
Oldbiddy didn't read the leaflet put out by Mr Simmonds the UKIP candidate. That was about local town and council issues with a couple of lines on what UKIP stands for.
ReplyDeleteAnyway Oldbiddy's argument about UKIP would be the same for all the parties - e.g. what's international socialism, uncontrolled immigration and high taxes got to do with Sandhurst town council so why vote labour?- Doughnut.
Voters go for a candidate who through his party membership presents what his principles are and in so doing lets the electors know that he would have an aligned consistent view on issues at all levels of government.