Friday, 26 February 2010
The local election in Owlsmoor has thown up a chance to see where the UKIP voters would go if UKIP don't stand or perhaps where they have taken there vote from. Given that UKIP did not stand in the Borough election but did stand in the Town.
It is always assumed that UKIP votes simply take from the Tory vote. Well I'm not so sure this is the case.
UKIP received 12% of the vote which is quite a large figure of the overall vote almost putting labour into 4th place.
I would add some caveats to this, firstly this is a local election so people may know some of the candidates or may indeed vote differently to a general election because of the candidates etc. Secondly some people could of changed their vote from Labour or Tory or Lib Dem from Town or Borough, but lets for this example assume that this goes both ways and irons itself out.
Labour vote appears to me unchanged percentage wise losing only 2 votes from UKIP. the Greens are next losing 16 votes or 2% next its the Lib dems with 37 votes or 4% and the Tories the most at 55 votes or 6%.
This also means that of UKIP vote of 112 people given no UKIP choice in Owlsmoor, 14% choose Greens, 2% choose Labour, 33% choose Lib Dems and 49% choose Tories and 2% don't vote.
Does this not demonstrates that infact the Lib Dems and the Greens are also effected greatly by having a UKIP stand in an election. This is something worth remembering when working out those marginal seats.
To compare this to the 2003 Borough elections were;
Party 2003 Vote 2010 Vote
Conservative 64% 54%
Liberal Democrats 19% 25%
Labour 17% 13%
Greens 0% 7%