Sunday, 8 May 2011
Scotland goes, Conservatives gain
Two of which were, Conservatives gaining seats when they were expected to lose and the SNP gaining a majority in Hollyrude.
This majority for the Scottish Nationalist will result at some point in a vote for independence. It is well known that the majority of Scots do not want independence at the moment. But let's say over time the SNP manage to persuade the Scottish people to break the union.
Now putting aside the fact that the Conservatives are a unionist party and will be fighting in Scotland for it to remain part of the UK. They can't stop this vote and would have to agree to the democrat result of a referendum.
There are currently 41 Labour, 11 Liberal Democrat MPs, 6 SNP seats and only 1 Conservative seat. If any seats change hands in the next election, they won't be going to the Conservatives. So the maths is simple.
Lose Scotland and the Tories lose 58 opposition seats to their 1. They also lose a more left wing country.
England and Wales could be left with many more Conservative governments. Good job for Labour that Wales are not leaving the UK, just yet.
Tuesday, 19 April 2011
Legality of Bracknell Conservative party leaflet
From Bracknell Liberal Democrat Press Release;
'The Bracknell Liberal Democrats believe the election manifesto leaflet published on behalf of Bracknell Conservative Association breaches election regulations. It by giving the impression that Bracknell Forest Borough Council is supporting the Conservative Party in the forthcoming local elections on 5 May 2011.
Not only is the leaflet entitled 'Bracknell Forest Borough Council' but it also contains a letter from Paul Bettison as Leader of the Council. During this period of 'purdah' councils are expected to distance themselves from the elections taking place in their areas and to maintain an even-handed and impartial approach to the proceedings.
Campaign publicity material is subject to a number of restrictions under electoral law and is also subject to the general civil and criminal law relating to published material.'
Saturday, 16 April 2011
Conservatives say yes to AV
Thursday, 13 January 2011
Is abstaining on Europe such a good idea?
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
So how is it for you Tory and Liberal Democrat government
Personally I'm pleased and optimistic.
I don't see that there was any other way of getting some Lib Dem policies into government under the current voting system.
Could the Lib Dems really say no to such a deal. Tories have given a lot of ground as have the Lib Dems. It's dangerous and some people who voted for us won't be happy, but over time we need to prove that it can work. I think when the £10,000 allowance comes in (yes it's phased a compromise I know) this will be a clear Lib Dem policy that people will know the Tories have taken on board from the Lib Dems. If people like this government then Lib Dems will be ok.
This risk is required for all parties.
1. Labour need a spell in opposition to help them rebuild their party. find their feet on what kind of party they want to now be and select a new leader and come up with new ideas. they can also call the other two parties the opposition.
2.Tories could not be running a government without us or at least one that was a highly disadvantaged minority government. Work with the Liberal Democrats will hold back some of their right wing tendencies and this will keep them in government.
3.Liberal Democrats need to prove that they can not only be a pressure group and a critic but can also help run a government. We need to prove to the Tories that PR doesn't; just work against them. We also need to get in voting reform even if it's really a first step.
People do want politicians to work together and they wanted real change let see if they accept it. The coalition will produce better and more though out policy because the parties will have to discuss it and compromise on the more radical right wing ideas or the more radical liberal ideas, thereby producing better policy.
Better Tories with the Liberal Democrats then on their own. Especially when a minority would not of help Britain out of this financial crisis. Lets also not forget how illiberal the Labour party was and I for one want to see more Liberal values.
This move has taken some nerve on behalf of the both party leaders, but you only make change by taking risks. Something Brown didn't do when he bottled calling an election.
Todays link is to Charlotte Gores Blog who blogs about how Labour are blaming the Liberal Democrats on Traitors! Turncoats! Liars!
Monday, 10 May 2010
Liberal Democrats are using Labour to get more from the Tories
I think the Liberal Democrats are playing a classic negotiation techniques. They have not got want they want from the Conservative party so now they are playing them off against the Labour party. It's not an easy game any of the parties are playing as they all have something to lose, perhaps none more so than the Liberal Democrats themselves.
I hope there can be some kind of a coalition because this would stop a small clique from running a party as they will have to deal with and agree with a wider group.
I'm not going to guess what happens next.
Sunday, 9 May 2010
Lets prove to the Tories that PR works
Labourites forget that the Liberal Democrats are not only socialist with a small 's' but we are also Liberals. This Labour government has been far from liberal. The Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats could fix the police state developments. If the Liberal Democrats always sided with Labour we may as well all join the Labour party. Fact is Labour don't have the same principals as the Liberal Democrats. I'm not even sure if Labour are as progressive as the Lib Dems.
So to Liberal Democrats its not quite as easy as lets go with Labour because their more centre left, Conservatives do have there good points for Liberals too.
There is another reason to work with the Conservatives. We need to prove to Conservatives that coalisions work and that parties would work with them in a coalision. These would help the tories to fear proportional representation less.
Todays link is to Power 2010 who protested outside of the Liberal Democrat meeting on saturday.
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Local Blog: Facebook groups in Bracknells election
Phillip Lee the Conservative candidate also has a Facebook group here and Good bye Andrew Mackay here.
Sunday, 18 April 2010
Historic polls show Conservatives must win for it's futures sake
I have been examining the ages of voters for the historic polls see below
There are some interesting points to note.
1. The vote stays very consistent for over 55's however the is variation in the other ages.
2.The vote for Labour and the conservatives drops when the opposition is in power.
3.Notice what has happens in the 2010 April poll. The other age groups have a Tory lead but the under 24s vote has actually decreased for the conservative and increased for Labour. This is a worry if this continues for the future of the Conservative party.
4. This ages bracket won't make a massive difference in this election because 18 to 25 is about 10% of the voters where as 50% of the voters are over 45. However this is still the future more likely voting pattern as most people do not change their vote.
Have new voters simply got used to a Labour government or are they more idealistic when they are young. In the other elections the 18 to 24 vote has been inline with the other age groups although this started to change in 1987. Some people have changed their vote as they move into the older group. However its this decrease in an election where the conservative are expected too get the most seats that is most striking.
Perhaps the Conservatives need to win this election if only to get the 18 to 24 age group used to a Tory government again.
This work was done before the leaders debate and I have not updated this because we do not know if this is temporary surge at the time of writing. I will update after the next leaders debate. I have heard on the news that the biggest increase in Liberal Democrat Support has been amongst people under 35. If this is true then they are less likely to get their news from the press and therefore less likely to be presudaed by the press to change their vote. Again if this is the case then Labour and the Conservatives need a different strategy to win those voters back.
These polls are based on the average for the year using the Ipsos Mori polldata taken from reseach by EarlhamSociology. The 2010 poll is taken from April 10th Polling data.
Todays link has to be to the UK polling Report Blog which contains all the polling data you could want and analysis.
Please click on the charts below to examine each age group in detail.
Monday, 5 April 2010
Bring back the Old Tories. Why? It's the economy stupid
It maybe right to ensure that people can get hold of cancer drugs but something else will have to be cut to pay for it. I certainly would like too see all of us get the medical drugs we need.
Once upon a time it was the Liberal Democrats who were accused of unrealistic spending plans. The Lib Dems have improved there spending ideas with paid for plans for each policy. Of course the accusation leveled at the Lib Dems was that they can promise whatever they want because they will never get in.
The Tories however have a very relistic chance of winning this general election and yet they are coming out with tax cut plans and spending guarantees. This would of course be great and I do understand that big government can be cut, which im all for. I'm all for a cut in tax too. But it can't be done for a very long time.
If the Tories want to cut as soon as they are in government then how can they make all these promises. Are the Tories not tying their hands behind their back or seting themselves up for a fall?
I don't want too see the famous Geoffrey Howe budget of 1981 which caused a short recession due to the spending cuts. But they can't promise all these guarantees on spending. Anyone who has watched the BBC programs on the Great Offices of State will realise that you don't really know how bad the situation is until your actually in office. So don't promise the earth.
When Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson came to office he also made a number of promises. His then Chancellor Jim Callaghan discovered that the balance of payments were even worse then they believed in opposition. He had to make a speech to the nation telling the public that they can't spend. Will the Tories have to do the same thing if they win?
Will will find ourselves in the crazy situation of having the Lib Dem part of a Tory/Lib Dem coalition trying to control government spending and bring in realism into the Tory plans.
While I approve of the Tories modernising their party, I think they are going a little too far on their economic promises. This time more then any other is the time to get real otherwise the Conservative Party may pay for it themselves as will the rest of us.
Todays Link is D.R.Scott's Pulp Culture. its Skeptical observations about TV, movies, sci-fi, comics, politics, Life, The Universe and Everything. There has not been any postings for a while but I just enjoyed the old ones.
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Local Blog: Political Letters in the Press
This mostly evolves the PPC's from the opposition parties (in Bracknell) to the Tories trying to get one up on each other on the letter pages of the Bracknell Standard. Personally I find this interesting as im interested in politics, but I do wonder what the people of Bracknell think about this. I think this is playing into the hands of the local Conservative party after all its they who how have most of the seats on the council and the current large majority in the constituency.
So should the opposition not be questioning the current Tory council and MP's. Phillip Lee has not evolved himself in these discussions, Perhaps his silence should be questions by the other parties before attacking one another? For example he has not needed to reply to any letters in the local press and has not updated his blog since he won the Conservative primary see here.
I do understand the need to defend yourself from attacks from other parties but there's an election coming up, and in Bracknell I would like to see it ran closer than ever before. Of course I would also like the Lib Dems increase there vote share so that they can provide the opposition. I guess we will wait and see.
To highlight this I have sent in the letter below to the Bracknell Standard.
Dear PPC's of all parties,
Please do bear in mind who the opposition in Bracknell are. I often see letters where the Greens,UKIP, Lib Dems and Labour are all questioning each other on their national policies. However please do bear in mind that here in Bracknell the party in power is the Conservative party. For the good of democracy in Bracknell we need more councillors from parties other than the Conservative party. We need effective opposition to the Conservative party to reduce the safe seat status. After all there will be an election soon.
I'm not sure Phillip Lee (who does not live within the Bracknell Standard delivery area) ever reads these letters unless he gets press cuttings. One way to find out would be to ask him why he has not updated his website since he won the Open Primary. How about asking why Andrew Mackay has still not made any payments for his wrongful second home claim?
Regards
Bracknell Blog
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
David Camerons Conservatives
The fact that the Tory party even considered calling their party 'David Camerons Conservatives' on the ballot paper makes me wonder if he is going to be a party leader or a president. Frankly I'm really fed up of spin and I do not want another president Blair. We have a parliamentary system not a presidential one, please can we keep it that way.
Tuesday, 29 December 2009
New Year Love bomb by David Cameron Working?
Wednesday, 23 December 2009
SNP Tactical Voting Gives More Reason for Tory PR Support
But this does brings up a different question. Why do the Tories still not support Proportional Representation?
I don’t know if it’s because I have always lived in Tory territory in the south and now in Bracknell Berkshire. But it feels as if tactical voting is mostly directed against the Conservatives then the other parties. Tactical voting exists because we have the First Past the Post System. Under a proportional representation voting system there would be no need for it.
The Tories need a massive swing to win the next general election of an extra 117 seats. As shown in the table on the left using the swing-o-meter found at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/. This example would result in a hung parliament (obviously this does not allow for all the local issues and variation which will be part of this election.).If I were a Tory then I would see this as being very unfair and I would support Proportional Representation like Single Transferable Vote.
A good explanation of which is provided here by the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland were STV is used for local council and Assembly elections.
Wednesday, 16 December 2009
Does The Tory Party Have Its Own Green House Effect
As I read a while ago Mark Reckons blog 'Are Tory bloggers out of step with membership on the environment?' I think this scepticism is shown up in the bloggers and indeed top Tory blogger Iain Dale while not claiming to be a sceptic has posted a number of articles 'Trust Us' Say Climate Change Scientists and Is the Climate Change Consensus Fracturing? And Indy Tries to Split Tories Over Climate Change as he believes the debate is not over. It certainly does not appear to be.
Also some Tories(Oliver Letwin and Iain Duncan Smith, sit on the advisory body) appear to be supporting the dossier issued by the European Foundation which can be viewed on the Thoughts Of A Conservative Christian blog here which gives 100 reasons why climate change is not man made. This was raised today by Jackie Smith and was not answered by William Hague (I have to add that this was a low jab at the Tories and after all its supposed to be Prime Ministers Questions).
On BBC Five Live today David Cameron said, "The way I would argue with the climate change sceptics is say look. If someone said to you that there is a 75 percent chance of your house burning down, even though 25 percent is quite a big number wouldn’t you take out some insurance, wouldn’t you take steps to try and stop it from happening? So even if your sceptical, even if you don’t think there a 100 percent certainty, isn’t it right to take some steps to protect against what could be calamitous for our planet for our children and as its moving quite fast for us as well”. So it’s very clear where David Cameron is on this subject.
I’m not discussing the merits of climate change here. I just wondered if these discussions have caused more Conservative members to become more sceptical. If so then given the Tory Party leadership are firmly behind they’re being man made climate change. Does this mean that this issue could also become a dividing line with in the Party?
Just by way of a note I noticed this 50 reasons why global warming isn't natural on the Short Sharp Science (New Scientist Blog), thanks to a Tweet from AdrianWindisch of the Green Party.
Monday, 14 December 2009
Tories Win, Tories Bloggers Lose?
At the moment the Tory bloggers are at the top and will be for the foreseeable future. However I think this may change if the Conservatives win the general election. It won’t be instant just a gentle drifting away to the independent/non-partisan blogs that are critical of the government (i.e. a Conservative government).
The problem for the Tory blogger is that there will be a settling in period, an uninteresting period for the Tories, not as controversial and some public slack. During this time the Labour party will be electing a new leader. There may be a number of interesting internal battles at this time within the Labour party. The details of which will be better reflected by the Labour bloggers.
At some point the government will inevitably trip up and those Tory bloggers that are critical or fairly report the situation will do well and shall remain popular. Those that defend the situation even if it is clearly wrong in the voter’s eyes will lose some readers.
I expect the critical Labour, Lib Dem blogs and others to slowly improve their readership numbers too (but not by as much as non-partisan bloggers) not through any great growth in support for these parties but because people who are not happy with government policy will turn to these blogs as they will be more critical.
So obviously if you’re a Tory blogger you will want the Tories to win the next general election but I do believe this could affect the rankings of some.
On the other hand if there is a hung parliament, then frankly I have no idea how this will affect the popularity of blogs other than providing many more issues for bloggers to tackle.
Thursday, 5 November 2009
An EU Referendum Would Split the Tory Party
The comments by a French government minister who branded the Tories' new European policy "pathetic" may even help them in the short term polls given how some people feel about the French.
I think the Tories are really making a mess of Europe given their new grouping in the EU parliament and the effect of this on there relations with the bigger European governments etc.
The Conservatives now have no strength in Europe to get any of their wishes through, like a having the power for a Sovereignty Act or to repatriate powers from the EU. I very much doubt the EU would consider another treaty within the first conservative term in office after the Lisbon Treaty and therefore won’t have any form of referendum.
I think Daniel Hannan and Roger Helmer are right to resign and campaign for a referendum to give the people a say as the Liberal Democrats would do. I also imagine that UKIP Leader Nigel Farage is trying his best to get Daniel to join his party as this really would be a great move for UKIP, if they could carry it off. I’m sure they would love too grab Daniel. Daniel Hannan also has a massive ground swell of support within the conservative party.
But the real problem for the Conservative party is that they could almost never hold a referendum on an in/out question on Europe. If they ever did, the leadership I guess would campaign to be in Europe but many of the grass roots would campaign to be out of Europe. In fact if this happened I could imagine UKIP gaining more activists from the Tory party during such a campaign then ever before. The same may also be true to a lesser extent of the Labour Party.
I actually think there are only two options if you really have given up on the European project and that's vote Lib Dem for a referendum or go the whole hog and vote UKIP.
Daniel Hannan Blog can be read here
Charlotte Gore makes a point that the Tories should stay quite on Europe here
Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Bracknell Primary Is Throwing up Some Questions
2. Was this an open Primary or an all ticketed caucus, you had to register and despite being told that it was not a ticketed event you was provided with a ticket?
3. Why were there no local candidates in the Primary (ok Phillip Lee is almost local)?
4. How many members of the attendees were not local conservatives? It’s quite hard for anyone to take up a Saturday afternoon for any event. The hall was not full and I do not have any numbers of attendees. I did see alot of conservative tickets (they were blue others were white).
5. Why was this not done as a postal vote? Was this just down to cost?
6 .Why was there confusion with using the ballet boxes? I never got to use them in the end. All tickets had to be handed to a Steward. I believe that nothing underhand was happening after all there is no reason for this plus I could see the count from the door. It’s just the ballet box could have been used and numbered tickets provided, for extra insurance.
7. Why were we not able to simply number the candidates and put them in order on our first voting slip? Would have been faster plus the first slip was printed in this format.
8. Why did the 3 women go out in the first few rounds? Iain Dale explains in this post that only 1 woman has won the last 7 open primaries.
9. Did Conservative HQ change the list of candidates?
10. Instructions were posted on the Tuesday before the event on the Saturday which included a question slip. Conservative members also had these details but their tickets were blue and not white. However attendees also had a question slip included in this pack which you had to get back to the Bracknell office by the Friday. How much time does this give you especially given the current postal problems?
Most Attendies I know did not get their tickets until the Thursday. Did the Conservative members get their information and question form sooner and therefore could they get their questions in on time? I didn’t even receive my documents for the event. I therefore couldn't ask my question and was unaware that I had to get it in before the day of the event.
11. Why do the conservatives use alternative vote* for voting selection at a primary but are not in favour of any change from First Past The Post at national elections? See Here.
12. Now there is this video on Mark Reckons blog which is posted by Dan Haycocks, who is campaigning for our current MP Andrew MacKay to pay back the money he appears to have over claimed or step down if he is not willing to do so.
This may all just be because this event is new and there were alot of CV's (near 200) sent into the Bracknell Conservatives. Some would have to go though the interview process. Maybe alot of the above is just down to learning pains but that is alot of questions.
If anyone has any answers please post the question number and the answer in the comments below.
*I have changed this line to alternative vote from proportional representation as it has been point out to me that this voting system can be “even less proportional”.
Saturday, 17 October 2009
NEWS FLASH Dr Phillip Lee wins Bracknell Primary for Conservative PPC
Dr Phillip Lee wins Bracknell Primary for Conservative PPC. It was a very long day. Started at 2pm and ended 7.10pm.
Well done and Congratulations to Dr Phillip Lee.
I will write a full report on the events on today on Sunday. But I would like to give my commiserations to all candidates.
Iain Dale has already given his congratulation on Tweeter to Dr Phillip Lee
"Many many congratulations to Philip Lee. And I mean that. He is a worthy winner. Naturally I'm gutted, but there can only be one winner."
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
Q & A with Julia Manning Who Has Been Selected for the Bracknell Open Primary

1. What can you offer the Bracknell constituency?
I will offer the best years of my life based on: 20 years real life experience in the NHS and business entrepreneur, the knowledge gained as a mum bringing up a family, working with some of the most needy people in our society (the elderly and prisoners suffering from mental illness) and more recently developing policy to influence a fairer and more responsible society.
2. Will you be willing to move to the constituency?
Yes we would make our family home here.
3. Are you independent minded and would you question the party policies if you see the need?
I believe both loyalty and integrity are important. On the whole I obviously agree with the Conservative Party's position on most things but I will always ask questions when a course of action doesn't seem right.
4. How do you feel about Andrew Mackay's departure and the second home error he and his wife Julie Kirkbride made?
Everyone I have talked to has spoken warmly of Andrew's service to the constituency and are sad at his departure. It was selfless of him to put David Cameron's bid for Government before his own ambitions. However I think some MPs, from all Parties, forgot whose money it was they were claiming - i.e. our taxes - paid in good faith to be used for the public's good.
5. Do you think that pre-registered open primaries are a good idea?
Yes because they encourage democracy and participation in politics - which runs all our lives.
6. If you could improve anything about Bracknell constituency what would it be?
It would have to be the town centre - it needs to draw people in and be somewhere that enables stronger community ties.
7. What previous experience do you have in politics?
I joined the Tories in 2000, frustrated by the NHS and outraged by Labour's assault on the family. I have stood for the council twice where I live and for Parliament in Bristol in 2005 - all sadly in Labour heartlands!
8. You have stood as a PPC in Bristol East why do you think you lost this election and what have you learned from that experience?
As I mentioned it was a Labour seat with a 13,000 majority so it came as no surprise to lose. It was the most character building experience I have ever had, standing up in public for what I believe in: family, community and my country.
9. Why do you want to stand for the Conservatives as apposed to any other political party?
I am a Conservative because I believe in personal freedom within a framework of responsibility that is based on a foundation of the rule of law where laws are kept to a minimum! In other words, Government's role is to trust and support people whilst providing them with security - not to control or take over their lives.
10. Do you have any prior connection with the constituency? If not, isn't it fair for voters here to conclude that you are just looking for a safe Tory seat in order to further your ambitions?
My only prior connection is that my Grandfather was President of the Sandhurst admissions board. You are right, I am ambitious - ambitious to serve. Having worked one to one with needy people all my working life and seeing the way our families and culture have been undermined, I am now passionate about being able to fight for a fairer society.
I am activity seeking the opportunity to ask similar questions of all the candidates in the open primary and hope to post them on this blog soon, Q&A was with Iain Dale can be found here, Phillip Lee’s here and Ryan Robson here.






