Bristol East are opening postal votes in the name of sampling and results are reported

Kerry McMcarthy recent MP and current Labour PPC for Bristol East just tweeted this;

@Kerry4MP First PVs opened in east Bristol, our sample: UKIP **; TUSC** ; BNP ** Lib Dem **; Tory **; Labour **. #gameON!


PV meaning postal votes. Surely this is not right?  I have hidden the actual number because it is illegal to report a sample of postal votes as it is in effect an exit poll and this could influence voting on the day. The tweet itself has now been deleted.

I tweeted back @Kerry4MP really then sampling should not be allowed esp if its public knowllege.

Then @markpack replied @Kerry4MP @mikeytweeting That's still illegal though - whether the figures you publish are from sampling or official totals.

lordbonkers tweeted this @kerry4mp suggest you read this http://www.ministryoftruth.org.uk/2007/07/18/welcome-to-the-jeffrey-archer-suite-belmarsh/  

Which includes this from Schedule 6, Section 66A of the 2000 amendments to the Representation of the People Act 1983, to whit:

“66A. - (1) No person shall, in the case of an election to which this section applies, publish before the poll is closed-
(a) any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted, or
(b) any forecast as to the result of the election which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.
(2) This section applies to-
(a) any parliamentary election; and
(b) any local government election in England or Wales.
(3) If a person acts in contravention of subsection (1) above, he shall be liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding level 5 on the standard scale or to imprisonment for a term not exceeding six months.”

Kerry defended this by tweeting Kerry4MP defended this by tweeting '@dazmando @markpack On reflection, I've deleted. It's not counting, just random exercise'

Parlez_me_nTory Tweeted to Kerry 'AHEM! RT @ianvisits: this: http://j.mp/bmJaom RT @Kerry4MP 1st PVs opened in east Bristol, our sample: Lib Dem **; Tory **; Labour ** '

Kerry4MP then turned the tables back on @Parlez_me_nTory  by tweeting @Parlez_me_nTory @ianvisits I think you two perhaps shouldn't compound the error? My mistake - hands up! But you can't do it either'.

Perhaps getting them in trouble too. Oh dear! 

I think this could be the worst tweet Kerry McCarthy has done in her career it is after all against the law. We wait and see where this leads. I'm also a little shocked that an MP didn't know or think about the rules governing disclosure of votes before the closing of the polls on Thursday next week.


UPDATE: Parlez_me_nTory @dazmando on my mobile cannot comment on your post, please ADD that i stand by my tweet in the interest of informing her of ...her error, thank you :)

UPDATE 2: as expected this story is now all over twitter using the #Kerryout hashtaq. Alex Foster of Lib Dem Voice has posted this Note to agents: do not publish anything you learn at postal vote opening where I also used the picture of the UKlabourparty tweet below;


Also Guido Fawkes has been intouch with the Electoral Services in Bristol East to complain about Kerry McMcarthy Tweet and Mark Pack covers the law here

Update 3: There is now a campaign as a result of this tweet to Stop the Bristol East seat being declared for Kerry McCarthy There is also a petition which can be signed here http://www.gopetition.co.uk/online/35862.html.Thanks to seebag

Update 4: Kerry McCarthy has tried to apologises in a In a statement released by Labour to the Returning Officer at Bristol City Council. Captainranty has the details here.

#Kerryout Could Keep Kerry McCarthy In

Is this a sign of things to come from the blogosphere As we all take part in an election battle are we the bloggers about to become a bit nasty.

I’m no fan of Kerry McCarthy MP, I follower her on Twitter and I'm quite unimpressed with what I read from her Twitter account. I don't think she is cut out to be an MP myself, but that’s just an opinion. I am also aware that she has had the famous 2nd bed expense claim. However I think this campaign is nasty and demonstrates how nasty the election could get on the blogosphere.

There has already been plenty of blogs written stating that this campaign is nasty (for example here on the Conservative Blog and here on the Norfolk Blogger) so I won't go into one on this blog as it’s been covered. However I just wondered how influential bloggers believe they are when trying to win seats.

Kerry McCarthy majority is 8,621 at the moment the top bloggers stats for November 09 are 241,208 unique visitors for Iain dale and 305,624 for Guido Fawkes. As a rough calculation that's split by 646 MP's is 473 for Guido Fawkes readers per consistency (Guido I must add has not covered the #Kerryout campaign. I’m just using the higher stats.). Now assuming all the blog readers were persuaded, then their still be falling too short of the line (of course this is rough as there’s many missing stats. like the actual majority now after boundary changes and some people would have already change their votes and the number of pro Kerry out blog readers adding up.).

I understand that all votes count but this won’t impact much on the ground. Of course the funds raised will help (although there is a limit of £12k that a party can spend on an election campaign).

It is possible that if a local blog tired this campaign it could have a higher effect if they have more local readers.

I guess the idea would be for the press to report this campaign, maybe locally to gain more supporters for #Kerryout. But could this be where it could all go wrong. The British people actually could react badly to a campaign like this if they are not given really good reasons as to why Kerry should go. They may even defend Kerry as the sense of fair play could enter the voter’s thoughts and they may get defensive. So if I was one of the bloggers who are supporting this campaign (like Tory Bear here) I think I would now end it and slowly walk away. This could be used against the Tory candidate. If that happened it would be quite unfair to the Adeela Shafi, who never asked for this campaign to begin with, but Adeela may pay the price of negative campaigning herself.

We will wait and see.