The Yes vote in Ireland poses a real problems for the Tories and the Lib-Dems
Now that Ireland have voted yes to the Lisbon Treaty, I see that David Cameron is promising a referendum on the treaty IF the Poles and Czechs manage to delay ratification until he wins the GE.
I understand from press reports that ratification by Poland is imminent but that there is even some sort of undercover agreement with between the Tories and the Czech President to try to delay the Czech ratification!
If this ruse fails and it is ratified by all 27 members before the Tories win, then it seems to me that Cameron will still have to promise to run a referendum on the treaty in view of the strong euroscepticism in his party and throughout the country!
Goodness knows exactly how the Lib-Dems plan to play this EU situation now?
The simplistic IN/OUT referendum the Lib-Dems have said they will promise us in their Manifesto may not come across to the average voter as being much different to a Yes/No treaty referendum promise from the Tories.
So, presumably there are not many votes to be won by making such a promise now?
But, a No result in a treaty referendum after ratification would just mean the UK would be asked to run it again until we got a Yes vote - just like Ireland, wouldnt it?
What would that achieve, other than more chaos, ditherring and confusion - and a continued half-hearted UK commitment to the EU, with UKIP and the BNP becoming increasingly active?
Can the Lib Dems still steal some votes from the eurosceptics over this situation?
I think so, but only if the Lib-Dems offer a clear middle course option in their IN/OUT referendum!
I.E,
IN as the EU stands?
IN subject to a list of specific major EU reforms that they demand on behalf of us voters? or
OUT? if they don't get them!
Unlike both the Labour and Tory parties, this would show the voters that the Lib-Dems are not only very tough negotiators for the UK's best interests, but also that they really are truly a liberal, democratic and a progressive party - offerring the prospect of a real change for democracy in the UK.
In my view this, and only this 3 choices referendum, will lay the UK's EU membership issue to rest once and for all.
And it will prove to the voters that, while the Lib Dems may be broadly supportive of our EU membership, that thay really are constructively critical of many aspects our EU membership at the same time - as I have so often heard them claim!.
Okay, I say, Lib-Dems - prove your credentials!
Billbloggs
Please note: This blog post was post by Dazmando for and on behalf of Billbloggs as a guest post.
I await the flood of UKIP comments
ReplyDeleteSorry, ran out of patience half way through this drivel. If you want to know how a referendum might turn out look at the last You Gov survey- only 18% beleived they knew much about the Treaty but 54% intended to vote in any referendum.
ReplyDeleteUKIP posted on this blog about the 'IN/OUT/Stay in and change it' issue back on 15th September 2009. The Lib Dems and other parties haven't convinced the majority of the UK voters of the need for a federalist European superstate that is traded in for UK sovereignty. Expecting to get from a refrendum a majority (PR?) vote to change the beast from the inside will mean taking on loads of other countries in the EU who are on the take from the billions of GBPs paid to the EU each year. Being outside the EU gives us alot more freedom to run our own country and relate to other countries as we see fit. And I'm not even going to mention that Blair person being in charge of it, except to say that if can wreck the UK he can also wreck the EU with his social relativism and other evils.
ReplyDeleteWell let me concede, I think UKIP is wining the debate, but there are a lot of lie spread and untruth also spread about Europe. A lot of this was shown in the first
ReplyDeleteNo campaign in Ireland (yes I also believe there should only ever be one referendum not two) But in the 2nd campaign the Yes people turned these around to demonstrate that the No’s used lies. So please when or if a referendum does happen say the truth.
My personal position (remember this is a guest blog) is there should be a referendum and not a complicated one. I think we should stay in Europe and change it work at making it more democratic.
Properly the biggest weapon in UKIPs arsenal is if Blair became the President. Now that would be bad, It should be democratic.
Anyway so you seen I do not entirely disagree with you I just think we should be in there changing it and not just running away.
A good comment Daz. Sensible thinking on Blair. Indeed the EU has some advantages but the problem is that the 'grand projet' proceeds apace without the constraint of any democratic governance process. When they do allow choice, like in Ireland...best of three anyone?
ReplyDelete(BTW - I'm happy to be associated with a blogname rather than anymouse. How do I register a profile/blog name? - the drop down list below is meaningless to me.
Whoops - sorted out the name thing after all!
ReplyDeleteRealaler - look you did it 80)
ReplyDeleteI agree EU does need vast improvments
You now have image associated with your blog name - let me know how to do that- wicked!
ReplyDeleteRegister at blogger.com and add a pic in the profile
ReplyDelete