Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Election Prediction

I noticed Tory Landlord has come up with his election prediction. He believes Tories: 36%, Labour: 29%, Lib Dems: 25% Others: 10%.

Here are my prediction.

The Conservatives will win the election with a minority government short by say 10 MP's with 37% share of the vote. The Conservatives will not work with the Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Democrats will not work with them due to a disagreement on voting reform.

Labour will have an even worse day at the polls then currently predicted and will get 27% share of the vote.

Liberal Democrats share will be about 26% and will come third just, Lib Dems will only have about 90 MP's. They will still lose only one seat to the Conservatives.

UKIP will win 2 seats including Nigel Farage and the Greens will win 1 seat, Brighton. The BNP will not win in Barking, Labour will. I'm also expect say 2 Independents to win and both nationalist parties to gain a seat each.

I think whoever wins the election will become very unpopular very quickly (poison chalices) as all parties said they had no plans to raise VAT the winner would be seen as a liar because the winning party will raise VAT.

So to sum up my prediction for the most unpredictable election I have been able to vote in is.

Tories: 37%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 26%
Others: 10%.

UPDATE Lib Dem Voice has a prediction post here

I have gone for the above plus, 92 Lib Dem MPs 72% turnout, PM David Cameron

5 comments:

  1. UKIPBracknell6 May 2010 at 13:47

    Oh yes we will - Nigel's just crashed his way in as a certainty for Buckingham. I hear that he can still talk, so look out for a bandaged-swathed winner on TV early tomorrow morning.

    ReplyDelete
  2. None of the indications point to UKIP winning anything at all, crash or no crash.

    Personally I see Lib Dems getting more like 85 seats than 90 and Cameron to be short by about 15.

    Turnout 68-69% for me.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well I got that wrong, part from the Greens

    ReplyDelete
  4. iPhone Ringtone Maker
    iPhone Ringtone Converter
    iPhone Ringtone Creator
    M4R Converter
    MP3 to M4R Converter
    M4A to M4R Converter
    AAC to M4R Converter
    Transfer iPhone SMS
    iPhone Ringtone Maker, a smart iPhone ringtone creating tool, can convert almost all mainstream videso/audio formats including AVI, MPEG, WMV, DivX, MP4, H.264/AVC, AVCHD, MKV, RM, MOV, XviD, 3GP, WMA, WAV, RA, M4A, MP3 to M4R iPhone ringtone, and transfer the converted M4R ringtone to iPhone directly without iTunes. Apart from converting common formats to iphone ringtone, the iPhone Ringtone Maker even supports converting music purchased from iTunes store to iPhone ringtone.

    ReplyDelete