Election Prediction

I noticed Tory Landlord has come up with his election prediction. He believes Tories: 36%, Labour: 29%, Lib Dems: 25% Others: 10%.

Here are my prediction.

The Conservatives will win the election with a minority government short by say 10 MP's with 37% share of the vote. The Conservatives will not work with the Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Democrats will not work with them due to a disagreement on voting reform.

Labour will have an even worse day at the polls then currently predicted and will get 27% share of the vote.

Liberal Democrats share will be about 26% and will come third just, Lib Dems will only have about 90 MP's. They will still lose only one seat to the Conservatives.

UKIP will win 2 seats including Nigel Farage and the Greens will win 1 seat, Brighton. The BNP will not win in Barking, Labour will. I'm also expect say 2 Independents to win and both nationalist parties to gain a seat each.

I think whoever wins the election will become very unpopular very quickly (poison chalices) as all parties said they had no plans to raise VAT the winner would be seen as a liar because the winning party will raise VAT.

So to sum up my prediction for the most unpredictable election I have been able to vote in is.

Tories: 37%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 26%
Others: 10%.

UPDATE Lib Dem Voice has a prediction post here

I have gone for the above plus, 92 Lib Dem MPs 72% turnout, PM David Cameron