Criticisms of the Lib Dem campaign‏

Ray Earwicker Lib Dem PPC for Bracknell believes that some criticism of the election campaign is justified. Here are his thoughts.

The leadership pressed home the four tenets of fairness underlying the campaign for far too long. Once it became clear that the main focus of the debate had shifted on to more controversial areas such as immigration, Europe and Trident we should have been ready to counter more effectively the arguments put forward by the media and the opposition against our proposals. The fact that we weren't able to do so undoubtedly lost us lost votes towards the end of the campaign, as the opinion polls all too clearly showed.

My second criticism concerns the presidential nature of the campaign. This may have been unavoidable given the pressure from the media to make it one but it prevented other members of the campaign team from making a bigger contribution to the campaign and may be taking some of the pressure off Nick. It also meant that the focus of attention remained on personalities rather than policies.

Thirdly, if there are any criticisms to be made of the organisation of the campaign, I would support those who found it difficult to obtain policy advice or guidance from HQ during the weeks before the election. The decision to replace the well-established Extranet information system with the new Huddle software package just before the election was asking for trouble. It was difficult to access, slow to respond and almost impossible to navigate; when time is of the essence familiarity is essential, especially for technophobes like me! The quality of the advice, however, that was eventually provided was generally excellent.

Finally,HQ need to ensure that candidates have a clear understanding of the lines of communication; who is responsible for what and how they can be contacted. Trying to make contact with Cowley Street is never easy but during the campaign it was like trying to make contact with the other side - is there anybody there?

My thoughts

I am not a parliamentary candidate so I do not know much about the Huddle system but I too have some thoughts on this. I believe that Liberal Democrats should of defended some seats better. For example, I like many others was disappointed to not only fall back in Oxford East where local Liberal Democrat campaign teams were directed too but to of lost Evan Harris in Oxford West. Next time I will be helping to get Evan Harris elected as his scientific background was a great loss to the parliament in general.

Newsnight showed a few seats where the surge caught the Liberal Democrats by surprise. This didn't happen locally where teams campaigned hard. but I do feel as if the surge and seat targeting perhaps directed Liberal Democrats away from defence. This I feel was inevitable because the surge too along time to decrease and was more spread between seats (second place in 242 up from 188).

Seats where much less predictable on national swings than anytime I can remember. Result really varied and I think there were local issues affecting many results.

I will add that individually I was impressed with the Lib Dem MP's on the media. If there was any wobbles it was because there was not a comprehensive response to defend some policies. I think this period of shared power will improve the Lib Dems arguments and battle for ideas.

Bracknell General Election Result

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Phillip Lee	Conservative	27,327	52.4	+2.5
Ray Earwicker	Liberal Democrat	11,623	22.3	+4.5
John Piasecki	Labour	8,755	16.8	-11.1
Murray Barter	UK Independence Party	2,297	4.4	+0.9
Mark Burke	British National Party	1,253	2.4	+2.4
David Young	Green	825	1.6	+1.6
Dan Haycocks	Scrap Members Allowances	60	0.1	+0.1
Majority		15,704	30.1
Turnout		52,140	67.8	+5.1

Well done to Phillip Lee who becomes the new MP for Bracknell with an increase majority for the Conservatives of 30%. Labour are the only party to lose votes by a massive 11.1% with Liberal Democrats gaining 4.5% and moving into second place.

Election Prediction

I noticed Tory Landlord has come up with his election prediction. He believes Tories: 36%, Labour: 29%, Lib Dems: 25% Others: 10%.

Here are my prediction.

The Conservatives will win the election with a minority government short by say 10 MP's with 37% share of the vote. The Conservatives will not work with the Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Democrats will not work with them due to a disagreement on voting reform.

Labour will have an even worse day at the polls then currently predicted and will get 27% share of the vote.

Liberal Democrats share will be about 26% and will come third just, Lib Dems will only have about 90 MP's. They will still lose only one seat to the Conservatives.

UKIP will win 2 seats including Nigel Farage and the Greens will win 1 seat, Brighton. The BNP will not win in Barking, Labour will. I'm also expect say 2 Independents to win and both nationalist parties to gain a seat each.

I think whoever wins the election will become very unpopular very quickly (poison chalices) as all parties said they had no plans to raise VAT the winner would be seen as a liar because the winning party will raise VAT.

So to sum up my prediction for the most unpredictable election I have been able to vote in is.

Tories: 37%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 26%
Others: 10%.

UPDATE Lib Dem Voice has a prediction post here

I have gone for the above plus, 92 Lib Dem MPs 72% turnout, PM David Cameron