London be careful what you dictate to Scotland

Westminster needs to be careful with its statement to change the legal status of a referendum. It is important and right that Scotland has the legal issues resolved in time for a referendum. But this should not be used to rush a vote through on Westminster terms.

This could fall into the SNP's hands and could be seen as London dictating to Scotland if the rules are decided at Westminster and not at Holyrood.

This move could cause a backlash and mean that Scotland breaks away from the union on a temporary upsurge in strong feelings over London pressure spurred on by the SNP.

This is very dangerous for the union and also for devolved democracy.

The SNP in the Scottish parliament has already overcome the odds in getting elected in a parliament designed to not give a majority to a single party. The Westminster parties should not underestimate the SNP or the First Minister, Alex Salmond.

We also shouldn't fear the 3 options vote as this will split the vote and will mean that the SNP is campaign for two options. A very hard position to hold.

So be careful because people are naturally rebellious when they are dictated to by those with power.

Excitement of AV/Alternative vote referendum polling

I don't really understand why some people are getting so excited about the current AV poll results when it has not been properly explained to the public or before a full campaign for or against AV has begun. The results by YouGov shows AV on 39% and First Past the Post on 38% see here.

Something else that is not considered in this referendum polling is who is more likely to turn out to vote in the areas where there are no other elections. Are pro AV supporters or pro FPTP supporters more likey to vote. I would have an educated guess that there could be a higher turn out of people that feel strongly about changing the system than those that want it to remain the same. This could have a big effect on the vote if turnout is low (which I expect it to be).

A poll report by Lord Ashcroft of Conservative marginals shows what would happen under AV in these seats see here.

I think that AV may be affected by a drop in support for the Liberal Democrats because AV could be seen bu some as a pro Lib Dem system. This is one reason why I think the AV referendum is too early see Is the AV referendum badly timed.

I also think that this lower polling of the Lib Dems is effected by the usual drop in Liberal Democrat support after elections as well as unhappy Labour voters. But then again there has been no campaign and the Lib Dem vote is back to its natual level (the actual Liberal Democrat voters). Lib Dems natual level normally results in more seats then Swing-o-Metres show.

Is the AV referendum badly timed

I happen to think that holding the Alternative Vote verses First Past the Post referendum in May is bad timing. Surely it is too early to get the campaign going on winning this Alternative Vote. Is it not too soon after the general election to start running a campaign especially when there are elections in Wales and Scotland.

I'm not sure the public or the campaigners are going to be ready for it. I think people need time to consider these elections and we should not only hold this vote later (at least two years later) but to get the voters out that really care about FPTP or AV or voting reform (and therefore understand the arguments) would it not be best to hold this possible change in our voting system in a completely separate vote.

Is it not better to let the coalition settle so as to not pressure the coalition if David Cameron or Nick Clegg is seen to of lost a public vote? I of course do not believe that the result of this vote will be devastating for Nick Clegg or indeed David Cameron but it does offer more pressure and sticks to beat them with by Labour and others.

I understand the above would include a cost but democracy does cost money (at least a delay also delays the cost). A compromise would be to hold the vote during council elections in later years instead of the same time as the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections.

Another problem as I see it is that this issue will appear on many Lib Dem Leaflets and therefore may appear to be more of a Liberal Democrat campaign then a vote "Yes" on AV campaign. This could cloud the result as some voters may think their voting/siding with the Lib Dems on this rather than for say better democracy. The vote will be more party political then it needs to be.

Of course there are others who believe that an early referendum would be a good idea see Five reasons to cheer the timing of the AV referendum for example. I find myself disagreeing with Mark Reckons.

His first point on 'referendum has not been kicked into the long grass'. This is true but it is also true if a date is set for 2012 or 2013 that we know it coming and hey all the more reason for the Liberal Democrats to stay in a coalition.

2nd point. Mark believes that having the vote 'coincide with the local and Scottish/Welsh elections will increase turnout'. Well yes but will it improve the quality of the voter understanding? Will there be more votes just choosing an option because they have to?

3rd point 'easier for the Lib Dems to get out the vote for a "Yes" vote'. Well Lib Dems would be out campaigning in either case for a yes vote anyway and maybe less Tories? Also Labour people who support the 'Yes' vote and infact others like UKIP will also beable to concentrate on helping the "Yes" campaign. I dont see this as a plus point.

4th point ' It will ensure that the Labour leadership candidates have to properly address what they would do and whether they will support a change'. Yes this point I do agree with. But then again Labour as a party would still have to address this later and I don't see this as a key factor in the Labour leadership selection, althought it is interesting to know their views.

5th Point 'It will give us 4 years to get the necessary changes in place if there is a "Yes" vote'. Again a very good point so we should not leave it too late. But surely this can be organised in two or three years, so not a major issue.

I guess the date is not going to change now and I will be campaigning for AV but I will also be helping in local elections and this will make the AV look for like a party issue (i.e. a pro Lib Dems one) which may make the "Yes" vote a little less popular with some.

EU Referendum IN or OUT Not Happy

Today on the Daily Politics BBC2 show ex Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell said "When the issue of whether or not there should be a referendum on Lisbon came up then we said it would be much more sensible to have a referendum on 'in or out' but the Lisbon Treaty is now history."

Nick Clegg confirmed that we would keep this pledge during the Liberal Democrat annual conference (I remember I was there). But now the position is not clear. Was Sir Menzies Campbell simply wrong or are the Liberal Democrats withdrawing the EU In/Out referendum.
Apparently this was one of the reasons why UK Independence Party thought a hung parliament would be a good thing as a coalition could of led to a chance for a referendum according to Lord Pearson.

Today on BBC 5 Live Nick Clegg said "The only way to sort out the debate about EU membership was to have a referendum in this country as to whether we stay in or stay out. What we can’t do is to be a member of a club and complain about it from the sidelines." So what is going on? I hope the Liberal Democrat stance is clarified soon.

I don't believe this is a vote winner especially after the conservatives withdrew their cast iron promise. This is a policy we should keep and if the Liberal Democrats don't then I for one wont be very happy about it!

Mark Reckons has blogged on this very point and I could not agree with him more see Lib Dems should not ditch the in/out referendum pledge

An EU Referendum Would Split the Tory Party‏

Conservative MEP's Daniel Hannan and Roger Helmer quit their frontbench posts to concentrate on campaigning for a referendum on Europe after David Cameron said it was pointless to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty now it has been signed.

The comments by a French government minister who branded the Tories' new European policy "pathetic" may even help them in the short term polls given how some people feel about the French.

I think the Tories are really making a mess of Europe given their new grouping in the EU parliament and the effect of this on there relations with the bigger European governments etc.
The Conservatives now have no strength in Europe to get any of their wishes through, like a having the power for a Sovereignty Act or to repatriate powers from the EU. I very much doubt the EU would consider another treaty within the first conservative term in office after the Lisbon Treaty and therefore won’t have any form of referendum.

I think Daniel Hannan and Roger Helmer are right to resign and campaign for a referendum to give the people a say as the Liberal Democrats would do. I also imagine that UKIP Leader Nigel Farage is trying his best to get Daniel to join his party as this really would be a great move for UKIP, if they could carry it off. I’m sure they would love too grab Daniel. Daniel Hannan also has a massive ground swell of support within the conservative party.

But the real problem for the Conservative party is that they could almost never hold a referendum on an in/out question on Europe. If they ever did, the leadership I guess would campaign to be in Europe but many of the grass roots would campaign to be out of Europe. In fact if this happened I could imagine UKIP gaining more activists from the Tory party during such a campaign then ever before. The same may also be true to a lesser extent of the Labour Party.

I actually think there are only two options if you really have given up on the European project and that's vote Lib Dem for a referendum or go the whole hog and vote UKIP.

Daniel Hannan Blog can be read here

Charlotte Gore makes a point that the Tories should stay quite on Europe here

Irelands Yes Vote a problem for both the Tories and Lib-Dems

The Yes vote in Ireland poses a real problems for the Tories and the Lib-Dems
Now that Ireland have voted yes to the Lisbon Treaty, I see that David Cameron is promising a referendum on the treaty IF the Poles and Czechs manage to delay ratification until he wins the GE.

I understand from press reports that ratification by Poland is imminent but that there is even some sort of undercover agreement with between the Tories and the Czech President to try to delay the Czech ratification!

If this ruse fails and it is ratified by all 27 members before the Tories win, then it seems to me that Cameron will still have to promise to run a referendum on the treaty in view of the strong euroscepticism in his party and throughout the country!

Goodness knows exactly how the Lib-Dems plan to play this EU situation now?

The simplistic IN/OUT referendum the Lib-Dems have said they will promise us in their Manifesto may not come across to the average voter as being much different to a Yes/No treaty referendum promise from the Tories.

So, presumably there are not many votes to be won by making such a promise now?
But, a No result in a treaty referendum after ratification would just mean the UK would be asked to run it again until we got a Yes vote - just like Ireland, wouldnt it?

What would that achieve, other than more chaos, ditherring and confusion - and a continued half-hearted UK commitment to the EU, with UKIP and the BNP becoming increasingly active?

Can the Lib Dems still steal some votes from the eurosceptics over this situation?

I think so, but only if the Lib-Dems offer a clear middle course option in their IN/OUT referendum!

I.E,

IN as the EU stands?

IN subject to a list of specific major EU reforms that they demand on behalf of us voters? or

OUT? if they don't get them!

Unlike both the Labour and Tory parties, this would show the voters that the Lib-Dems are not only very tough negotiators for the UK's best interests, but also that they really are truly a liberal, democratic and a progressive party - offerring the prospect of a real change for democracy in the UK.

In my view this, and only this 3 choices referendum, will lay the UK's EU membership issue to rest once and for all.

And it will prove to the voters that, while the Lib Dems may be broadly supportive of our EU membership, that thay really are constructively critical of many aspects our EU membership at the same time - as I have so often heard them claim!.

Okay, I say, Lib-Dems - prove your credentials!

Billbloggs

Please note: This blog post was post by Dazmando for and on behalf of Billbloggs as a guest post.

Can We Change the Lib Dem Manifesto on EU Membership?

EU membership?

It is a fact that a high proportion of the electorate within the UK are anti- EU.

But, do they really want the UK to leave the EU?

Let us assume that the Lib Dem party manifesto promises an IN-OUT referendum within one year of taking office.

Bearing in mind that they campaigned for such a referendum at the time of the Treaty fiasco in the Commons last year, I think they will lose much credibility if this quietly disappears!

Would this make enough of us inclined to vote for them, and might they actually be elected as a result?

They would declare themselves as being pro-EU and would be campaigning for an IN vote, so it would certainly seem a two edged sword.

Personally, I think it would win them considerably more votes, but not nearly as many as a far more meaningful referendum would.

What if the majority of the electorate really do want us to stay in the EU, but far too many of them will vote for OUT simply because they do not like the way the EU functions at present, nobody seems to listen to their complaints, and the only choice being given is IN or OUT?

What if they really only want to see the way the EU functions reformed?

Why not offer the electorate a referendum that involves two leading questions -:

Do you want the UK to leave the EU? - YES or NO

Do you want the UK to stay in the EU, but wish to see the EU reformed? - YES or NO



During the run up to this referendum the reforms desired by the electorate would become clear, and the UK would be at far less risk of a much feared protest vote for OUT.

In my view, the most democratic party out there, the one laying claim to be doing the most to reform the workings of the EU, should take note!

Billbloggs

Please note: This blog post was post by Dazmando for and on behalf of Billbloggs as a guest post.



Billbloggs has send in an email request to Nick Clegg for him to answer the above question on Sundays Q&A session with him at the Lib Dem Party conference, Billbloggs has also sent a letter to the Lib-Dem news on the above subject for publication.