Tuesday, 20 July 2010

Excitement of AV/Alternative vote referendum polling

I don't really understand why some people are getting so excited about the current AV poll results when it has not been properly explained to the public or before a full campaign for or against AV has begun. The results by YouGov shows AV on 39% and First Past the Post on 38% see here.

Something else that is not considered in this referendum polling is who is more likely to turn out to vote in the areas where there are no other elections. Are pro AV supporters or pro FPTP supporters more likey to vote. I would have an educated guess that there could be a higher turn out of people that feel strongly about changing the system than those that want it to remain the same. This could have a big effect on the vote if turnout is low (which I expect it to be).

A poll report by Lord Ashcroft of Conservative marginals shows what would happen under AV in these seats see here.

I think that AV may be affected by a drop in support for the Liberal Democrats because AV could be seen bu some as a pro Lib Dem system. This is one reason why I think the AV referendum is too early see Is the AV referendum badly timed.

I also think that this lower polling of the Lib Dems is effected by the usual drop in Liberal Democrat support after elections as well as unhappy Labour voters. But then again there has been no campaign and the Lib Dem vote is back to its natual level (the actual Liberal Democrat voters). Lib Dems natual level normally results in more seats then Swing-o-Metres show.


  1. I'm not so sure as to why people are getting excited *at all* about the idea of AV. I'm quite worried that after this referendum any calls for changes to the electoral system will be met with a "you've already had your chance" rebuttal.


    Also, loving the "greenwash theme" on the site ;) I normally read on my mobile so I'm not sure when it happened.

  2. Thanks glad you like the new look

    yes Im not as excited about AV as I should be.