London be careful what you dictate to Scotland

Westminster needs to be careful with its statement to change the legal status of a referendum. It is important and right that Scotland has the legal issues resolved in time for a referendum. But this should not be used to rush a vote through on Westminster terms.

This could fall into the SNP's hands and could be seen as London dictating to Scotland if the rules are decided at Westminster and not at Holyrood.

This move could cause a backlash and mean that Scotland breaks away from the union on a temporary upsurge in strong feelings over London pressure spurred on by the SNP.

This is very dangerous for the union and also for devolved democracy.

The SNP in the Scottish parliament has already overcome the odds in getting elected in a parliament designed to not give a majority to a single party. The Westminster parties should not underestimate the SNP or the First Minister, Alex Salmond.

We also shouldn't fear the 3 options vote as this will split the vote and will mean that the SNP is campaign for two options. A very hard position to hold.

So be careful because people are naturally rebellious when they are dictated to by those with power.

Scotland goes, Conservatives gain

It can't be denied that there were many very amazing results in the May 5th elections.

Two of which were, Conservatives gaining seats when they were expected to lose and the SNP gaining a majority in Hollyrude.

This majority for the Scottish Nationalist will result at some point in a vote for independence. It is well known that the majority of Scots do not want independence at the moment. But let's say over time the SNP manage to persuade the Scottish people to break the union.

Now putting aside the fact that the Conservatives are a unionist party and will be fighting in Scotland for it to remain part of the UK. They can't stop this vote and would have to agree to the democrat result of a referendum.

There are currently 41 Labour, 11 Liberal Democrat MPs, 6 SNP seats and only 1 Conservative seat. If any seats change hands in the next election, they won't be going to the Conservatives. So the maths is simple.

Lose Scotland and the Tories lose 58 opposition seats to their 1. They also lose a more left wing country.

England and Wales could be left with many more Conservative governments. Good job for Labour that Wales are not leaving the UK, just yet.

SNP Tactical Voting Gives More Reason for Tory PR Support

Snptacticalvoting is living up to its name with this post on Anti Tory Tactical Voting. The idea behind it is that if there are no Tories in Scotland then it would “Arguably offer up an ideal platform for the SNP to advance its arguments that Scotland should govern itself”. I agree with Jeff of Snptacticalvoting that it would.

But this does brings up a different question. Why do the Tories still not support Proportional Representation?

I don’t know if it’s because I have always lived in Tory territory in the south and now in Bracknell Berkshire. But it feels as if tactical voting is mostly directed against the Conservatives then the other parties. Tactical voting exists because we have the First Past the Post System. Under a proportional representation voting system there would be no need for it.

The Tories need a massive swing to win the next general election of an extra 117 seats. As shown in the table on the left using the swing-o-meter found at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/. This example would result in a hung parliament (obviously this does not allow for all the local issues and variation which will be part of this election.).

If I were a Tory then I would see this as being very unfair and I would support Proportional Representation like Single Transferable Vote.

A good explanation of which is provided here by the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland were STV is used for local council and Assembly elections.